Demand for European skimmed milk powder (SMP) could strengthen significantly if a potential Super El Niño disrupts milk production and agricultural output across key dairy-producing regions, according to analysis from CZ App. The report highlights that extreme weather linked to a strong El Niño event could impact global dairy supply chains, creating tighter market conditions and increasing reliance on European dairy exports.
Analysts note that adverse weather patterns associated with El Niño have historically affected milk production in major exporting regions, particularly Oceania, where drought conditions can reduce pasture growth and dairy farm productivity. As a result, global buyers may turn to European SMP supplies to fill potential supply gaps.
The outlook comes as climate experts warn that ocean temperatures are approaching record levels, increasing the likelihood of a powerful El Niño event. Several forecasts suggest a strong, and potentially “Super,” El Niño could develop, bringing heatwaves, droughts, flooding, and broader disruptions to agricultural production and commodity markets worldwide. Such conditions are expected to tighten supplies of several agricultural commodities and support higher food and dairy prices.
According to the analysis, stronger SMP demand could provide additional support to European dairy markets, particularly if production challenges emerge in competing export regions. Market participants are therefore closely monitoring weather developments, as climate-related supply risks may become a key driver of dairy trade flows and pricing in the months ahead.
Source: Dairynews7x7 05 June, 2026 Read full article here