India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has begun on a weak footing, raising concerns over the outlook for the upcoming kharif cropping season and its potential impact on agricultural production, rural incomes, and food inflation. According to a report by 360 ONE Capital Research, cumulative rainfall as of June 17 stood at 46.2 mm against the normal 74.3 mm, representing a deficit of 38%, while weekly rainfall for the period ending June 17 was 48% below the long-period average.
The weak start comes amid developing El Niño conditions, which have already prompted forecasts of India’s weakest monsoon in 11 years, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projecting seasonal rainfall at around 90% of the long-period average. Analysts warn that inadequate rainfall could delay sowing and affect yields of key kharif crops, including pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and rice in non-irrigated regions.
While improved irrigation infrastructure, higher reservoir levels, and better crop resilience may help cushion the impact, concerns remain over rising food inflation and pressure on rural demand if rainfall deficits persist. The government has already advised states to prepare contingency plans focusing on water conservation, moisture management, intercropping, and alternative cropping strategies to mitigate risks associated with uneven rainfall distribution.
Industry observers note that the progression of the monsoon during July and August will be critical in determining the ultimate impact on agricultural output and commodity markets. (The Economic Times)
Source: Dairynews7x7 22 June, 2026 Read full story here
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