According to the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook (2023–2033), global demand for dairy—especially fresh milk—will grow by approximately 11% per capita over the next decade . This growth is driven predominantly by rising incomes and population in developing regions, with Asia (notably India and Pakistan), the Middle East, and Africa leading the charge. Fresh dairy consumption in developing nations is projected to increase 18%, while developed nations may see a 1% decline per capita.
Processed dairy products—cheese, butter, whole milk powder (WMP), skimmed milk powder (SMP), and whey products—are set to surge globally, with per capita cheese growth expected at 13% in developing regions and 8% in developed areas. Both WMP and SMP are projected to rise significantly . The trend toward processed dairy is reinforced by improving infrastructure and logistics, opening further market opportunities in China and Southeast Asia .
Notably, evolving consumer preferences—such as health consciousness and protein demand—are steering consumption patterns. While high-fat dairy may face headwinds in the West, high-protein, low-fat dairy foods are gaining traction. This will shape global trade, with import demand rising in Asia and Africa, while Europe remains the leading cheese exporter and China dominates cheese, butter, and SMP import volumes.
Industry Insight:
Dairy stakeholders should prepare for a decade-long shift: explosive growth in processed dairy versus slower fresh milk uptake in mature markets. Exporters in India—with anticipated per capita demand surges—must scale processing and trade connectivity to capture evolving opportunities.
Dairynews7x7 July 11th 2025 Read full story here