The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an above-normal southwest monsoon for 2025, bringing encouraging prospects for India’s agriculture and dairy sectors. According to IMD’s long-range forecast, rainfall between June and September is likely to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, with a model margin of ±5%. The probability of receiving above-normal to excess rainfall (over 105% of LPA) stands at a significant 59%, based on climate models and Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasts.
Currently, ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions remain neutral, although atmospheric patterns resemble La Niña-like features, which are typically favorable for monsoons. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral but stable. An important climatic factor boosting this forecast is the below-normal snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia from January to March 2025 — a pattern historically linked with stronger Indian monsoons.
Spatially, most parts of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, barring some regions in Northwest, Northeast, and Southern Peninsular India, which might witness normal to below-normal rains. The final, updated forecast will be released in May 2025, incorporating refined regional projections and oceanic observations.
Industry Insight:
For dairy stakeholders, an above-normal monsoon offers the potential for improved fodder availability and lower feed costs, which could stabilize milk production costs and buffer against summer deficits. This is a vital early signal for cooperatives, private dairies, and feed manufacturers to prepare procurement and pricing strategies for the upcoming season.
Source : DAirynews7x7 April 17th 2025 Pune Pulse